On March 15, 2010 USJFCOM released their Joint Operating Environment
2010 (JOE 2010) report.
The command releases these reports periodically, the last in 2008.
They are intended to provide a forward look at the world and how these
forecasted changes and trends may shape US strategy.
Dry stuff so far. But the report is a surprisingly good read. Page 9
looks at how strategic estimates have changed by taking a snapshot in
time every 10 years from 1900 to the present. Page 13 has some world
population pyramids that show population by age for key regions, and
which highlight the massive growth in India. The defense spending
graph on page 23 isn't something typically seen.
Computers and cyberspace are addressed, though not in depth or with
much evidence to backup the usual optimistic claims. Like we'll all be
able to download the entire library of congress in 2 seconds by 2030
from our average home computer over our average internet connection.
As if.
The bad news starts on page 25 with future world oil production (it
doesn't look good). World oil choke points on page 28. Growing world
demand for grain on page 30. World water scarcity on page 31.
The political instability index on page 51 is amusing. Apparently
Canada, Australia and Japan are low risk. The US, China and Brazil are
moderate risk.
They also sprinkle in some quotes. The best one being "With two
thousand years of example behind us, we have no excuse, when fighting,
for not fighting well." by T.E. Lawrence.
A good quote, and if the same people or even the same team had done
all those years of fighting they should fight well. But the people,
environments, resources, and ideas keep changing. The only resource
we'll never run dry is ideas. So far two thousand years of ideas have
changed the face of the world, and of warfare, a lot. The ideas we
have now are shaping the world again.
What keeps me excited about work and the future is seeing how ideas
shape the present and future. And maybe contributing a few of my own
to the mix. Hopefully for the better.
Link to Joint Forces Command press release:
http://www.jfcom.mil/newslink/storyarchive/2010/pa031510.html Link to the report, JOE 2010:
http://www.jfcom.mil/newslink/storyarchive/2010/JOE_2010_o.pdf